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The FX Trader: Dovish Fed drives USD weakness, but how far?

Posted on: Dec 12 2025

The FOMC was slightly more dovish than anticipated, but reaction sizeable.

What to know

The FOMC meeting delivered the expected 25-basis point cut and was marginally more dovish than expected, which sparked a larger initial reaction than seemed justified on the surface, if only because the treasury market was struggling and US treasury yields were testing the top of the ranges across most of the US yield curve heading into the decision late Wednesday. The US dollar followed treasury yields lower, with the USD selling picking up in early US hours on Thursday, driving EURUSD to a 2-month high and nearly to 1.1750 as of this writing, USDCAD hitting new local lows and USDJPY volatile but moving lower. Some feared three or more hawkish dissenters, but only two of the regional Fed presidents on the committee dissented in favor of no cut, while Stephen Miran dissented dovish with his latest request for a 50-basis point cut.

The Fed’s dot plot was practically unchanged, with the median forecast looking for a single further rate cut next year, while the GDP forecast was revised a solid 0.5% higher for next year to 2.3%, while PCE inflation was revised slightly lower for the headline and core next year. So much for tariff-induced inflation… A lower inflation level combined with solid growth allows cover for positioning this as the last like rate cut for the cycle unless incoming data requires a change of course. Powell spoke somewhat dovishly of US official payrolls data likely over-reporting payrolls gains of late. Oh, and the Fed is quietly restarting QE to prevent the Fed Funds rate from rising above the upper bound.

Of course, if the economy (mostly the labor market) fails to cooperate and weakens from here, cuts will quickly be on the table at a coming meeting and may be on the table anyway once the new Fed leadership is on board after May of next year. The market is likely correctly anticipated that with or without strength returning to the US economy, the Fed will default to the dovish side – very slow to hike even if inflation starts raging again amidst a growth resurgence and far more aggressive cuts than are priced if the labor market stumbles. A Fed landing zone of 3.00-3.25% is currently in the price (in the forward curve right into the September time frame next year). But could be 3.50-75% (the current level) in a wildly strong growth scenario by then or 2.00-2.25% in an ugly labor market deceleration. We'll offer our base case soon (somewhere in between) in the next quarterly outlook. Stay tuned.

Looking ahead – turn of year more than the data?

The Fed and the market are not as starved for data as previously, with some of the private measure of payrolls and other data points like the ISMs and others not painting an alarming picture on the economy, and the market may be willing to look through the November official non-farm payrolls data if it is weak next Tuesday, given flat numbers from the ADP and the government shutdown disruptions, while the bar is high for the CPI to spark concerns next Wednesday.

Still watching US treasuries just in case concerns of weakness revive.

The recent rise in long bond yields in Japan, with some signs of contagion into Europe was the development that most quickly might have threatened to destabilized global markets had it continued and especially had it spread to the US treasury market. If the US economy heats up again, treasury yields could act as a speed limiter for both global equity markets and USD bears. For now – the plunge back into the range for the 10-year treasury benchmark is a green light for USD bears and might even have the key 154.50 area in USDJPY in play again if the yield momentum to the downside continues. Some of the treasury bid may also be coming from suddenly weak sentiment on the Oracle earnings that came after the close on Wednesday, reversing all of the happy vibes in risk sentiment that the dovish Fed had driven. Should

Chart focus: EURUSD

EURUSD rallied post-FOMC and followed through stronger in Thursday session. Next week is the last proper week for trading for the year, although markets can continue to move in the days adjacent to holidays and into year-end fixing flows. The obvious focus is now the nominal top up of the range way up at 1.1919, though that was a bit of a spike high, so this breakout and a close above 1.1800 starts to reset the focus higher still to 1.2000 and more.

Source: Saxo

Technical and other observations for key pairs.

  • EURUSD – all of the local resistance has been cleared and the focus is squarely on the 1.1919 spike top and beyond – but we probably need to sustain this FOMC reaction in US treasuries as well.
  • JPY pairs – the latest move in US treasuries is helping to offset the recent pressure on yields elsewhere, with even JGBs catching a break and consolidating over the last session. But is this really the end – full stop – for this source of pressure on the Japanese yen?
  • GBPUSD and EURGBP – this bearish development we have seen in EURGBP recently has gotten no traction, which is seeing conviction for downside potential fading. But still, the pair would need to reverse back above 0.8800 to set the focus back higher. GBPUSD is rising on the weak US dollar – the 1.3500 level a key psychological test zone. Let’s see how the market treats the BoE meeting next week, the only other bank of note that is look at even possible further easing outside of the Fed.
  • AUDUSD and AUD pairs – A weak Australia jobs report on Thursday saw a setback for AUD bulls, but AUDUSD is rebounding on the USD weakness – again that huge 0.6707 high for 2025 is the key focus, while broader AUD status is pivotal if today’s weakness in the crosses isn’t a one-off.
  • USDCAD – CAD is particularly strong – feels a bit flow driven, perhaps on hedging flows on anticipation on a new attitude on the potential for a structural domestic investment shift back into Canada? Next area of note for USDCAD down into the 1.3600 zone.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

The strength of the US dollar bear rising sharply since Tuesday, although the JPY trend has been so embedded it will take some further doing to turn. The Swedish krona has the strongest positive reading, but weakend sharply off the highs today, while we’ve seen quite a positive momentum turn in the Swiss franc as the SNB likely won’t consider negative rates anymore (geopolitical cost) and on the yield drop globally post-FOMC.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs. The strength of negative USD trends rising, and USDCHF looking to turn to a negative trend on the close today, with USDJPY still some ways from joining as a holdout due to the JPY weakness of late.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..
John J. HardyGlobal Head of Macro StrategySaxo Bank
Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY
Meta’s pivot: from metaverse money pit to AI factory?

Posted on: Dec 06 2025

Key takeaways

  • Meta plans to cut a large share of its metaverse budget and redirect capital and talent into AI infrastructure, wearables and “superintelligence” projects.

  • The core ads business already monetises AI, but record capital spending raises questions about how fast new AI products will pay for themselves.

  • Long-term investors should treat Meta as a cash-rich, founder-led AI utility and track discipline on capital spending, Reality Labs losses and the rise of new AI revenue streams.

From metaverse dream to AI reality check

A few years ago, Meta rebranded the whole company around the metaverse and poured tens of billions into virtual reality headsets and digital worlds. Reality Labs, the division behind Quest devices and Horizon Worlds, has since racked up more than 60–70 billion dollars in losses, while user adoption stayed modest.

Now the script is changing. Meta is considering cutting up to about 30% of its metaverse budget from 2026, with Reality Labs expected to bear much of the reduction. Management is already shifting money from pure metaverse projects towards AI-powered glasses and wearables, where products such as the Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses show more promising traction.

The question for investors is simple: is this a long-overdue clean-up of a costly side quest, or just a rotation into another expensive, hard-to-monetise vision?

Building an AI factory on top of a huge social graph

Meta is turning itself into one of the world’s largest AI factories. For 2025, management expects capital expenditure of about 60–65 billion dollars, mainly on data centres, chips and other infrastructure that power its apps and new generative AI projects. On current estimates, capex is set to rise above 100 billion dollars as soon as 2026, showing how quickly the spending ramp is accelerating.

Crucially, this spend already feeds a very profitable engine. In the third quarter of 2025, revenue grew about 26% year on year to just over 51 billion dollars, helped by AI-driven upgrades to its ad systems that better match adverts to users across Facebook, Instagram and Reels. Operating margins sat around 40%, reminding investors that the old ad machine is still very much alive.

AI ad tools such as Advantage+ now generate more than 60 billion dollars in annual run-rate revenue. For advertisers the promise is lower cost per lead and better conversion. For Meta, each ad impression becomes more valuable, cushioning past privacy hits and lifting returns on that infrastructure.

The hiring strategy matches the scale of the bet. Meta has invested heavily in Scale AI and brought its founder, Alexandr Wang, in as Chief AI Officer to run Meta Superintelligence Labs, while slimming bureaucracy in older AI teams and targeting what Wang calls “hotshot” AI scientists.

Markets broadly like the AI story, but they still worry about the bill. Meta’s shares have bounced on news of metaverse cost cuts, yet remain sensitive to any sign that AI spending will stay “higher for longer.”

Show me the money: AI products and future monetisation

For now, most of the cash still comes from familiar places. Meta’s AI keeps people scrolling, surfaces more engaging content and serves more relevant ads. Short-form video on Reels has moved from being a drag on profits to pulling its weight in monetisation, helped by better recommendation models and ad formats.

New AI products are earlier in their journey. Meta has rolled out chatbots, AI features inside WhatsApp and Messenger, and early versions of personal assistants that live inside its apps and devices. The long-term vision is that AI agents help users shop, manage tasks, create content and interact with businesses, with Meta taking a fee or ad share along the way.

AI glasses and other wearables are the wild card. Here Meta hopes that always-on AI assistants, accessed through normal-looking glasses rather than bulky headsets, can finally make its years of hardware work pay off. Trimming pure metaverse projects and leaning into AI-first wearables shows management is now more willing to follow the user than the buzzword.

Risks: competition, capex bloat and founder risk

The main risk is that spending stays high while monetisation lags. Building world-class AI models and data centres is expensive, and Meta is competing directly with Alphabet, Microsoft and major Chinese platforms that are all chasing similar customers.

There is also execution risk. Meta is reorganising its AI efforts, hiring star talent and seeing some long-standing research leaders move on, including its veteran AI chief Yann LeCun as the strategy shifts from open research to more commercial products. That can be healthy, but it increases the chance of missteps just as the company is betting its next decade on AI.

On top sit regulatory and political risks, from content rules to AI safety concerns and possible new taxes on big tech. And as always with Meta, investors live with a tight governance structure where Mark Zuckerberg holds firm voting control. Founder-led can be a strength, until it is not.

From costly dreams to disciplined ambition

Meta’s story used to be simple: a very profitable social network quietly funding a very expensive metaverse dream. The new chapter is tidier. Reality Labs is shrinking, AI is moving to centre stage, and more of the budget now supports products that already touch billions of users.

For investors, the opening question still stands: is Meta moving from one money pit to another, or from a failed dream to a disciplined AI factory? The difference this time is that AI spending is already lifting ad performance and engagement. If management keeps that focus and shows clear payback on capex, Meta’s pivot could end up compounding something very old-fashioned: cash flow.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben DalfovoInvestment StrategistSaxo Bank
Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Metaverse Meta Platforms Inc.