• Major US stock indices close lower
• WSJ: Little progress in US/Iran talks
• VP Vance: Made a lot of progress on Iran
• Al Hadath: Trump has made decision to attack Iran
• Japan's Finance Katayam: Ready to take decisive action on forex
• Trump: We may have to give Iran another hit. I am not sure
• NATO warns alliance buildup will take years
• Bessent: Trump Admin. is not in a hurry to extend China trade truce due to expire in Nov
• US Pending home sales 1.4% vs 1.0% estimate.
• More from Treas Sec Bessent: U.S. expects European partners to support Iran sanctions
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Excess FX volatility is undesirable.
• Canada CPI inflation YoY for April 2.8% vs 3.1% estimate
• Canada March building permits +10.3% vs +3.0% expected
• ADP Weekly NER pulse 42.25K vs 33K last week
• The USD is higher to kickstart the trading day. Stocks pointing lower. Yields lower too.
• ECB's Villeroy: Iran conflict creates risk to growth and inflation

The increased risk of a broader escalation in the Middle East helped lift the dollar, with the move higher also supported by rising global bond yields. Although there were pockets of optimism just 24 hours ago after President Trump appeared to pull back from immediate military action, the threat of renewed bombing has quickly returned to the forefront. Markets remain concerned that even if a temporary pause is achieved, disruptions to oil flows and heightened geopolitical uncertainty could keep energy prices elevated for longer.

Even though crude oil prices edged modestly lower today, traders continue to worry that sustained higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and potentially reignite inflation expectations, with secondary effects spilling over into other goods and services. That backdrop helped push yields higher across the US curve. The 2-year yield rose 2.6 basis points to 4.116%, the 10-year yield climbed 4 basis points to 4.665%, and the 30-year yield remained comfortably above the 5% level at 5.1774%, up around 3 basis points on the day.

The combination of higher yields and a more cautious risk environment also supported the greenback against risk-sensitive currencies. The AUD was one of the weakest major currencies, with the USD rising 0.82% against it, while the NZD also came under pressure, with the USD up 0.70%.

Looking at some of the major currency pairs:

USDJPY remained firm despite intervention rhetoric: The yen initially strengthened after Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama warned authorities were prepared to take decisive action on FX moves, but the gains quickly faded. USDJPY traded in a relatively contained range between 158.60 and 159.25. One theme becoming increasingly evident is that intervention chatter continues to attract dip buyers rather than sustained selling.Going into the new trading day, the rising 100-hour moving average near 158.56 remains close support. A break below that level would have traders targeting the 158.00 area, where the 200-hour moving average is moving higher. However, if buyers can keep the pair above the 100-hour MA and push back above 159.08, the focus would shift once again toward the key 160.00 level.

AUDUSD fell sharply on the day and extended below a key swing area floor between 0.7100 and 0.7113. The pair dropped to a low near 0.7080 before rebounding back toward the upper end of that broken support zone. However, sellers stalled the recovery near 0.7113, keeping that area as a critical barometer for the new trading day. A move back above — and more importantly staying above — the 0.7113 level would tilt the bias back in favor of the buyers. Staying below 0.7100 keeps the sellers in control and would have traders targeting the 50% midpoint of the rally from the March low near 0.7055, followed by the rising 100-day moving average near 0.7014.

NZDUSD sellers pushed the pair lower from a high near 0.5880 to a session low of 0.5818. That move briefly broke below yesterday’s low near 0.5822, but sellers could not sustain momentum below the April 29 low at 0.5813. A break beneath 0.5813 would increase bearish momentum and target the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the April low near 0.5796. On the topside, buyers need to reclaim 0.5839 with momentum to open the door for a move back toward the 100-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement level near the 0.5870 area.

GBPUSD rotated back to the downside today after yesterday’s sharp corrective rally stalled near the falling 100-hour moving average and a swing area resistance zone around 1.3645. Sellers leaned against that resistance and pushed the pair back below the 200-day moving average at 1.34229 and the 50% midpoint of the move higher from the March low at 1.3408. Heading into the new trading day, the falling 100-hour moving average is converging near that 50% level, making the 1.3408–1.3409 area a key short-term barometer for buyers and sellers. Staying below that zone keeps the bias tilted to the downside and would have traders targeting the 61.8% retracement near 1.33496, followed by yesterday’s low around 1.3303. On the topside, a move back above 1.3409 and then above the 200-day moving average at 1.34239 would shift the focus back toward today’s highs and give buyers more control.

EURUSD extended lower today, breaking below yesterday’s low near 1.1606 and reaching a session low at 1.1593 before rebounding modestly. The recovery stalled within a swing area resistance zone near 1.1616, keeping sellers in near-term control. Another key risk level for sellers comes in at the 50% midpoint of the rally from the March low at 1.16287. A move back above that level would shift the bias more in favor of the buyers and open the door for a test of the falling 100-hour moving average near 1.1651, which remains a major upside target. On the downside, the next key technical target comes in at the 61.8% retracement level at 1.15768.

US stocks closely session lower, with the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ index of the weakest.

• Dow industrial average fell -322.01 or -0.65% at 49368.95
• S&P index fell -49.39 points or -0.67% at 7353.65.
• NASDAQ index fell minus 220.02 provides or -0.84% to 5870.71

The small-cap Russell 2000 fell -28.02 points or -1.01% at 2747.07

Gold and silver prices took their cue from the higher yield and higher US dollar. Spot gold fell $-83.90 or -1.85% to $4483. Silver tumbled by four dollars or -5.15% at $73.70. Bitcoin was little changed at $76,790

A US trade court struck down Trump's 10% global tariffs 2-1, ruling the duties were not justified under a 1970s trade law; the White House had cited a $1.2 trillion goods trade deficit as grounds.

Summary:

• The US Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 against President Trump's 10% global tariffs, finding they were not justified under the Trade Act of 1974, per the court ruling
• The tariffs took effect on February 24 after Trump invoked Section 122 of the 1974 Act, which permits duties for up to 150 days to address balance-of-payments deficits or dollar depreciation risks, per the court filing
• The court found the law was not an appropriate instrument for the type of trade deficits Trump cited, according to the ruling
• The Trump administration had argued a serious balance-of-payments deficit existed, pointing to a $1.2 trillion annual goods trade deficit and a current account deficit of 4% of GDP, per the administration's legal submissions
• The case was brought by small businesses who argued the tariffs were an attempt to circumvent a Supreme Court decision that struck down Trump's 2025 tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, per court documents
• One dissenting judge said it was premature to grant victory to the small business plaintiffs, according to the ruling

A federal trade court has struck down President Donald Trump's 10% global tariffs, ruling in a 2-1 decision that the duties were not legally justified under the 1970s trade legislation the administration used to impose them, in a significant blow to one of the White House's central economic policy instruments.

The US Court of International Trade found in favour of a group of small businesses that challenged the tariffs after they took effect on February 24. Trump had issued the February order under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a provision that allows a president to impose duties for a period of up to 150 days to correct serious balance-of-payments deficits or to head off an imminent depreciation of the dollar. The court determined that the law was not an appropriate tool for the kind of trade imbalances Trump cited when issuing the order.

The administration had mounted a robust defence of the tariffs, arguing that a serious balance-of-payments deficit existed in the form of a $1.2 trillion annual goods trade deficit and a current account deficit equivalent to 4% of gross domestic product. That argument did not persuade the majority of the panel, though one dissenting judge argued it was premature to hand victory to the small business plaintiffs, leaving the door open for a more protracted legal dispute.

The small businesses behind the challenge had framed the February tariff order as an attempt by the administration to sidestep an earlier Supreme Court decision that struck down Trump's 2025 tariffs, which had been imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. By reaching for a different statutory authority, the White House sought to put its tariff policy on firmer legal ground, a strategy the trade court has now rejected.

The ruling will be welcomed by import-dependent businesses and global supply chain operators who have faced rising costs since the duties came into force. The Trump administration is widely expected to appeal, meaning the legal status of the tariffs is unlikely to be resolved swiftly. Until a higher court issues a definitive ruling, companies will face continued uncertainty over whether the duties will ultimately stand, complicating investment decisions and supply chain planning across a wide range of sectors.

It's a bit of a challenge trying to keep up with all these stuff ups.

---

The ruling introduces immediate legal uncertainty over a tariff regime that has been a central pillar of the Trump administration's trade policy and a persistent source of cost pressure for businesses reliant on global supply chains. A successful challenge on the grounds of statutory overreach narrows the legislative tools available to the White House for imposing broad-based duties, and markets will reassess the durability of the entire tariff architecture if the ruling survives appeal. For energy traders, the significance lies in the downstream implications: import-dependent industries facing lower tariff costs may see input price relief, while the prospect of a less aggressive trade posture could ease some of the demand destruction fears that have weighed on oil price forecasts. The 2-1 verdict leaves room for appeal, meaning the uncertainty is unlikely to resolve quickly, and companies will be cautious about adjusting supply chain strategies until a higher court rules.

Palantir stock is in focus after reporting earnings, while Bitcoin is hitting multi-month highs. The Daily Breakdown digs in. Before we dive in, let’s make sure you’re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to your eToro account. What’s Happening?…

The post Palantir Charts in Focus After Earnings appeared first on eToro.