Disclaimer: This article is prepared on the basis of reputable financial sources and analytical data from RoboForex specialists. It reflects the conclusions of thorough research; however, economic changes may significantly affect market conditions and alter the EURUSD forecast. We recommend conducting your own research and consulting with professionals before making financial decisions.

EURUSD is trading near 1.1545 as of early August 2026, having recovered from the July lows near 1.1450 as the active scenario shifted back to bullish. The pair has recrossed EMA65 to the upside on the daily chart, EMAs have formed a bullish crossover on H4, and the weekly chart shows price moving up toward the middle Bollinger Band — a complete reversal of the bearish structure described in the previous review.

Key fundamental tailwinds supporting the recovery: the GDP growth gap between the US (1.5%) and the eurozone (1.0%) is narrowing, the ECB held rates at 2.4% at its July 22–23 meeting signalling a pause rather than a pivot, and the FOMC's July 28–29 meeting produced an unprecedented 9–3 dissent vote with three members pushing for an immediate rate hike — creating uncertainty that is weakening the dollar rather than strengthening it. A confirmed close above 1.1700 opens the path toward 1.1805 and the 2026 highs.

Key takeaways: EURUSD forecast

EURUSD technical analysis

The technical picture has shifted materially since the July review. Across all three timeframes the dominant theme is recovery: price has reclaimed EMA65 on the daily chart, EMAs have formed a bullish crossover on H4, and the weekly chart shows price moving up toward the middle Bollinger Band. Momentum indicators — MACD in particular — are turning constructive on both daily and weekly timeframes. The active scenario is bullish, contingent on a confirmed close above 1.1700.

Indicator summary

Daily timeframe (D1)

On the D1 chart, EURUSD has reversed the bearish structure from July: after a growth impulse, the pair has crossed EMA65 from below to the upside and is now testing EMA200. The June 2026 crossover of the two MAs produced a period of sideways drift, but price has since built a growth wave with corrective pullbacks. At this stage, EMA65 and EMA200 are acting as resistance — a confirmed break above EMA200 and a sustained close above it would be the clearest signal for continuation of the upward move.

RSI14 is advancing toward the 70 zone, reflecting increasing bullish momentum. The MACD histogram has crossed the zero line and is gradually rising, with the signal line preparing to cross zero as well — a confirmed MACD crossover above zero would strengthen the bullish case materially. For short positions, the conditions to watch are RSI14 crossing level 70 from above and the MACD histogram crossing the zero line from above. For long positions, a sustained close above EMA200 is the preferred confirmation signal.

H4 timeframe

On the H4 chart, EURUSD is trading near 1.1545, having broken through both EMA65 and EMA200 to the upside. Following the bullish EMA65/EMA200 crossover, both moving averages are now trending upward beneath the price — a confirmation that the intermediate-term structure has turned bullish. This is a significant structural shift from the July review, when both EMAs were declining and acting as overhead resistance.

The Stochastic oscillator (20/15/15) has tested the 80 overbought zone and is now heading toward the oversold area — signalling that a short-term corrective wave is forming. A pullback toward the 1.1500 support zone is the near-term base case before the next upward leg begins. If the euro continues to strengthen after the correction, the pair could form a new growth wave targeting 1.1690. A deeper correction toward 1.1400 before the next rally should not be excluded and would represent a more attractive long entry.

Weekly timeframe (W)

On the weekly chart, EURUSD is approaching the middle Bollinger Band after recovering from the lower Band area seen in July. This move — from the lower Band toward the middle — is the typical structure of an initial recovery wave, and the middle Band acting as a magnet for price supports the near-term bullish bias. Price is now forming a growth wave after a period of horizontal consolidation.

The MACD histogram is gradually decreasing toward the zero level, with the signal line still in the histogram below zero — the histogram is contracting rather than expanding, which is a constructive sign that bearish pressure is being absorbed. In the long-term picture, the most likely sequence is: a short-term pullback followed by a resumption of the growth wave. A confirmed weekly close above 1.1690 would mark the start of a new sustained upward wave and shift the long-term bias firmly to bullish.

Trading scenarios

Key EURUSD price levels

The following levels are derived from structural analysis across the Daily, H4 and Weekly timeframes — historical swing highs and lows, Bollinger Band reference zones and key psychological round numbers.

Key intermediate levels for current trading: 1.1700 (bullish breakout trigger — close above opens path to 1.1805), 1.1350 (near-term support — first defence line in any pullback), and 1.1280 (critical structural support — weekly close below invalidates the bullish scenario).

Psychological levels: At round numbers — 1.0000, 1.1000, 1.1200, 1.1400, 1.1500 and beyond — price has historically bounced multiple times before breaking through. When a breakout fails to sustain, these levels become turning points where the prevailing trend reverses direction.

EURUSD forecast by horizon

Short-term expectations are expressed through level-based conditions rather than fixed dated prices, keeping the forecast valid between scheduled reviews. The near-term bias has returned to bullish following the July recovery, while the year-end outlook remains contingent on the Fed beginning to ease and the eurozone avoiding recession.

The year-end bullish case is supported by the narrowing GDP growth differential between the US (1.5% in Q2) and the eurozone (1.0%), updated bank forecasts (Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank now both target 1.2500), and the possibility that FOMC dissent signals a more complex policy path for the Fed than previously assumed. Key upcoming catalysts: the September 9–10 ECB meeting and September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

What drives the EURUSD price

EURUSD is driven by the relative economic performance of the US and the Eurozone. The exchange rate reflects which side appears stronger in terms of monetary policy, inflation, growth, and risk appetite — not the absolute strength of either currency in isolation.

ECB monetary policy

At its July 22–23, 2026 meeting, the ECB Governing Council kept its key rate unchanged at 2.40%, signalling a pause after the June hike. The decision reflected elevated uncertainty, particularly around the full inflationary impact of the energy shock, which the ECB believes has not yet been fully absorbed in the data. The Council adopted a wait-and-see stance, emphasising that future decisions will be strictly data-dependent and that no commitment to any specific rate path has been made — preserving flexibility for both additional tightening and eventual easing. The next ECB meeting is scheduled for September 9–10, 2026 in Berlin. A hold in September combined with dovish forward guidance would be euro-positive; a further hike would narrow the ECB/Fed differential and provide additional support for EURUSD.

Federal Reserve policy

The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% at its July 28–29 meeting, but the vote was 9–3 — the most significant internal dissent since 2016, with three members pushing for an immediate 25 bp rate hike. This reflects a genuine split within the Fed: the majority sees the current stance as sufficiently restrictive, while the minority is alarmed by persistent inflation and fiscal dynamics. The market is not pricing an immediate hike, but fears that prolonged delay could force sharper moves later — a dynamic that is creating uncertainty around the dollar rather than providing it with a clear directional bid. The next FOMC meeting is September 15–16; the outcome of the September 9–10 ECB meeting just six days prior will set the tone for the currency market heading into that event.

Inflation differential (Eurozone vs US)

The latest data show inflation trends diverging from the July picture. In the eurozone, the Eurostat preliminary July CPI rose slightly to 2.9% (from 2.8% in June), driven primarily by energy price increases. In the US, the latest published CPI held at 3.5% year-on-year (down sharply from 4.2% the prior month). The current differential is approximately 0.6 percentage points in the US's favour — continuing to narrow from the 0.7 pp gap in July. While US inflation still exceeds eurozone CPI and remains above the Fed's 2% target, the direction of travel (convergence) is euro-positive: as the differential narrows, the market case for a more hawkish Fed relative to the ECB becomes less compelling. If this trend continues, it would reduce the primary fundamental headwind for EURUSD.

GDP growth differential

A key fundamental shift in the August update: the US–eurozone growth gap has narrowed significantly. US Q2 2026 GDP grew 1.5% year-on-year (down from 2.1% in Q1), as the impact of higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions began to slow consumer spending and business investment. Eurozone Q2 2026 GDP grew 1.0% year-on-year — a meaningful improvement from 0.8% in Q1, driven by a modest pickup in domestic demand. The remaining gap (0.5 pp) is the smallest in over two years and is approaching the point at which it ceases to be a meaningful argument for dollar strength. If the trend continues — US growth decelerating while eurozone growth stabilises — the GDP differential will flip from a USD tailwind to a neutral factor, removing a key structural headwind for EURUSD.

Geopolitics, trade & USD index

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 99.73, forming a correction after a period of strength, supported by hawkish Fed expectations, elevated US Treasury yields and safe-haven demand. The Middle East situation remains a background risk: no major escalation has occurred, but the threat of supply disruptions keeps oil prices elevated — a factor that weighs more on the energy-import-dependent eurozone than on the US. The US administration maintains a tough stance on trade tariffs and is conducting negotiations with key partners including the EU; ongoing uncertainty around trade restrictions adds a risk premium to European assets. Overall, the combination of a DXY near 100 (rather than 105), a narrowing growth gap, and Fed internal dissent is creating a less hostile macro environment for EURUSD than was the case in July.

What could push EURUSD lower

• Fed rate hike materialising: If the three FOMC dissenters from the July meeting prevail in September, a 25 bp hike would strengthen USD materially and widen the ECB/Fed differential back in the dollar's favour.
• Sustained DXY rally (above 105): A DXY breakout above 105 would trigger capital rotation into USD, driven by yield-seeking investors and safe-haven flows, pressuring EURUSD lower.
• Eurozone recession risk: While Q2 data improved, the eurozone remains near stagnation — a further energy price shock could tip the region into contraction, limiting the ECB's room to hike and weighing on the euro.
• ECB cutting rates faster than Fed: If eurozone growth deteriorates sharply, forcing premature ECB easing, the rate differential would shift decisively in the dollar's favour.
• Geopolitical escalation: A significant Middle East escalation would drive safe-haven flows into USD and weigh on risk-sensitive European assets.

Bank & institution forecasts

The institutional consensus has shifted more firmly bullish in the August update, with Goldman Sachs joining Deutsche Bank at 1.2500 and ING revising its target upward to 1.2200. The primary outlier remains Citi Research at 1.1000. Morgan Stanley revised its year-end target range to 1.1600–1.2000.

Long-term EURUSD outlook (2027)

Long-term EURUSD forecasts have become more concentrated in the 1.2000–1.2500 zone following the August institutional revisions. The bull case is increasingly well-supported by structural factors: the narrowing US–eurozone growth differential, the convergence of inflation rates, and the prospect of Fed easing as US inflation approaches 2%. The bear case at 1.1000 (Citi Research) requires a sustained USD safe-haven bid driven by global risk aversion and/or a premature ECB pivot toward easing. RoboForex Analysis Department maintains a 1.1000–1.3000 range for 2027 with a bullish bias, with 1.2000 representing the most likely convergence point for the institutional consensus.

How to trade EURUSD

EURUSD offers multiple ways to gain exposure, each suited to different trading styles, time horizons and risk appetites.

Pros and cons of trading EURUSD

EURUSD forecast methodology

Conclusion

EURUSD has staged a meaningful recovery since the July lows, with the active scenario rotating back to bullish for the third time this year — underscoring how fluid the 2026 macro environment has been. From a technical standpoint, the structure is constructive: daily price has reclaimed EMA65, H4 shows a bullish EMA crossover with both MAs trending upward, and the weekly chart is building toward the middle Bollinger Band. MACD has crossed above zero on the daily, and the weekly RSI is on a Buy signal. A confirmed close above 1.1700 is the key trigger for the next leg higher toward 1.1805 and the 2026 highs.

Fundamentally, the picture is shifting in the euro's favour. The US–eurozone growth gap has narrowed to 0.5 pp (US 1.5% vs eurozone 1.0%) — the smallest in two years — and the inflation differential continues to compress. The FOMC's 9–3 vote at the July meeting introduces uncertainty about the Fed's next move, which is weighing on the dollar rather than supporting it. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank now both target 1.2500 by year-end. The main downside risk is a September Fed rate hike — but until that materialises, the balance of factors favours EURUSD upside. The critical support to defend is 1.1280: a weekly close below that level would invalidate the current bullish scenario entirely.

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