News

Japan PPI Services, September 2025:

+3% y/y

• expected +2.7%, prior +2.7%

This is a monthly report from the Bank of Japan, wholesale ser cies inflation showing an acceleartion.

Earlier:

• Preview - BOJ expected to hold rates as Takaichi’s fiscal tilt and U.S. risks weigh

Risk appetite is firm as the new week opens, earlier:

• AUD and NZD jump higher on news of US-China trade agreement
• Globex is open! US equity indexes jump higher on US/China trade deal positivity

EUR is not joining in, thanks France!

• France delays wealth tax vote as Socialist ultimatum threatens government collapse

The USD/JPY pair extends the rally to a two-week high near 152.65 during the early Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) as traders weigh fresh US sanctions on Russian oil companies.

The US dollar faces downward pressure amid market momentum and Fed comments, but remains in a key range, with long-term trends at risk if support breaks.

Trump is out with an announcement on tariffs:

It has just been learned that China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them. This affects ALL Countries, without exception, and was obviously a plan devised by them years ago. It is absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations.

Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying. Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.

It is impossible to believe that China would have taken such an action, but they have, and the rest is History. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

DONALD J. TRUMPPRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

There is some additional yen buying on the announcement, which is minutes before the FX market closes. USD/JPY sank an additional 50 pips and S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% further.

The only notably caveat here is the November 1 date, which sounds like it leaves plenty of time to make a deal.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he is considering bringing full-year appropriations bills — including legislation to fund the Pentagon and military pay — to the Senate floor for a vote, as bipartisan talks on a short-term funding measure remain stalled.

Via Axios:

With negotiations over a temporary stopgap bill frozen, Thune is weighing alternative approaches to end the government shutdown, though they would likely prove slow and complex.

Passing a bundle of spending bills like the one the Senate advanced earlier this year would require unanimous consent, making it procedurally difficult. However, Thune could instead move ahead with individual appropriations bills that have already cleared the House, such as the Defense funding package, to reopen parts of the government incrementally.